Our planet is faced with a number of rapid changes over the coming decades. These changes include:

• a changing climate
• growing demand for food
• constraints of resources
• increasing global population and urbanisation
• ageing societies

Although the extent of these changes is difficult to predict, the consequences of not meeting the challenges are all the better known.

In this meeting we will address these key issues through the AGS research initiatives and look for sustainable solutions in the face of change. The meeting includes prominent speakers from industry and society, panels of experts and briefings by AGS researchers on the key issues.

The AGS annual meeting will be held on 23-25 January 2011, and continues in collaboration with the Energy Conference on 26 January 2011.

Welcome to Gothenburg!

Contact: ags2011@chalmers.se

More information: www.ags2011.org

For some, the Climate Summit in December 2009 was a success for achieving agreement on the Copenhagen Accord; for others it was a complete failure to agree on any basis for post-Kyoto negotiations. The end of the summit left deep uncertainty as to what the basis for international negotiations towards COP-16 was. At the AGS Annual Meeting, we had a panel discussion to evaluate the COP-15 and future options for action on climate change, chaired by Akimasa Sumi, IPCC AR4 Lead-author and professor of the University of Tokyo. The panel of climate change policy researchers gave perspectives from Japan, the US, Switzerland and the European Union, and China – together responsible for 60% of global carbon emissions.

Text by Akimasa Sumi translated by Yoshie Maeda

First, Stephen Connors of MIT described the political status of climate change in the US. The US political system is complex and divided – it is still uncertain whether the US Senate will pass the Climate Bill introducing domestic carbon reduction targets. However, cities, states and regions are setting their own targets and introducing regional cap-and-trade systems, and companies, NGOs and individuals are taking action. Further he emphasized that for the US federal government, COP-15’s failure to extend the Kyoto Protocol was good news, as it would never join Kyoto or agree to reduction commitments without matching commitments from China and India.

Yasuko Kameyama from the Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies explained that before COP-15 started, countries already showed that they had very different positions on what kind of legal agreement they wanted. The negotiating process was complicated by the two clearly independent but parallel negotiating tracks – one track between the Annex I countries that have agreed to legally binding reductions under the Kyoto Protocol (not including the US and China), and another track between all UNFCC countries (including the US and China), negotiating under the terms of the Bali Action Plan, which did not include any kind of legal instrument. The non-Annex I countries were divided between the emerging economies (especially China) who strongly asserted the need for technological and financial aid in order to get the support of developing countries, and the small island countries and other developing countries who wanted to see the emerging economies commit to emissions reductions.

Japan took the position that a new legal agreement should replace the Kyoto Protocol (to include the US and the emerging economies in emissions reductions), and hoped that with its own ambitious reduction commitment it could take a lead in negotiations, both of which failed.

For the EU negotiators, COP-15 was a surprising and painful insight into the EU’s lack of weight vis-à-vis the US and China, and its failure to be a strong role model for other regions, and the EU now risks isolation. Malte Schneider of ETH Zurich emphasised that the EU must pursue its 30% target by building an improved EU emissions trading scheme, and by driving forward large-scale technology projects, demonstrating that climate action is economically competitive.

Prof.Minjun Shi of the Chinese Academy of Sciences explained China’s standpoint. For China, the most important outcome of COP-15 was the confirmation of the principle of common but differentiated responsibility of the Annex I countries and the developing countries, so that for China (and others) mitigation actions are voluntary, and Annex I countries are obliged to provide them with financial and technical support for mitigation and adaptation. China has set its’ target to 2020 based on reducing carbon emissions in relation to its economic growth, i.e. reducing energy intensity. He argues that China needs to make major efforts to improve energy technology to achieve this target without negative effects on economic growth. Constraints in energy supply and other environmental and resource constraints, especially water, are likely to have a significant influence on policy.

Kristina Sahleström, posing question to the Post COP15 panel

The speakers were challenged by two students who attended COP-15 with support from the AGS. Takako Ogimoto, a student at UT, asked how international negotiations can be effective when nothing can be decided without unanimous agreement, and countries have such unbalanced power. Kristina Sahleström, a student from Chalmers University of Technology, asked what can be done for COP-16. Will engineers and scientists be at the negotiating table? What are the steps that will lead forward?

Corresponding to these questions, panelists responded.

Kameyama made the point that though COP-16 might not reach an agreement, many activities outside the UNFCCC forum, such as the G20 or the Asia Pacific Partnership, or public-private partnerships, continue making progress in technology transfer and creation of carbon markets. All panelists agreed that action is driven by economic and political arguments for a low carbon economy, tying in issues such as increasing energy security, creating green jobs, and reducing energy poverty.

Connors pointed out that in order to meet the 2°C global target in the Copenhagen Accord, the US would have to reduce its carbon emissions by 80% (from 1990) by the year 2050. How do you actually get “substantial and sustained” GHG reductions of this magnitude? Markets are not enough: carbon trading markets may reach their limits of effectiveness well before this target is reached.

Schneider argued that developing countries need a much more comprehensive technology needs assessment, and the Clean Development Mechanism will not be sufficient to drive investments in technology in these countries. Alternative funding mechanisms are needed, together with policies that promote technology transfer. Technologies are owned by companies, not countries. Technology transfer does not mean Toyota selling more hybrid cars to China! Research institutions – especially the AGS universities – should lead the way with truly collaborative joint research and technology development projects that bring technological innovations to the market in developing countries, with viable business models.

Finally, as the convener, I would like to say that although the issue was complex and diverse, and the speakers could not give definite answers to the student’s questions, it was meaningful for the participants to see a glimpse of the diverse debates.

More information AM2010 website

The main themes of the AGS Annual Meeting 2010 were: Mitigation and adaptation strategy to climate change and demographic change; Sustainable city-regions; Energy pathways to the future: smart grid and smart infrastructure; Information exchange and communication between academia and society. The meeting included discussions of the post-COP 15 situation and CO2 reduction, venture capital, legal frameworks, energy pathways to the low carbon society, adaptation to climate change, food and water sustainability, and pathways to sustainable urban futures.

The president of the University of Tokyo, Junichi Hamada, gave a keynote on the right to sustainability from the point of view of his own field, constitutional law. He stated that sustainability is implemented through realization of individual rights.

George Hara, Group Chairman DEFTA Partners, Chairman of the Board of Alliance Forum Foundation, Ambassador to the UN Economic and Social Council, Advisor to the Japanese Ministry of Finance

George Hara is the group chairman of DEFTA Partners, and the Chairman of the Board of the Alliance Forum Foundation. He inspired the participants through his own experiences investing in technologies for sustainability in developing countries.

Designing sustainable urban-rural systems is key to sustainability in our urban future. The ETH research investment in a simulation platform that facilitates management of stocks and flows of people, energy, water, materials, capital, space and time in such systems was explained by Gerhard Schmitt.

Researchers from the US, Europe, China and Japan discussed the implications of the failure of COP-15 to produce a post-Kyoto framework. The panel suggested limitations of UN-style agreements and pointed out the need for other schemes. Promotion of technology transfer could contribute to achieve global progress on carbon emissions.

Former University of Tokyo president Hiroshi Komiyama presented his vision of how Japan can achieve the low carbon society, demonstrating for example that air conditioners already use half as much energy as before 1990, but that four times less energy use is easily achievable by 2050.

Japan’s International Cooperation Agency works with Asian countries to improve climate change adaptation strategies, as explained by Hiroto Arakawa, senior special advisor. The JICA has benefitted greatly from collaboration with sustainability science experts at the University of Tokyo.

Water is key to climate change adaptation. The Stockholm Water Prize is the world’s most prestigious prize for outstanding achievement in water-related activities, and the prize and its winners were described by Per-Arne Malmqvist from Chalmers University of Technology.

ETH president Ralph Eichler challenged the AGS to address the implications of the ageing society for sustainable development, and a panel discussion chaired by Hiroko Akiyama of the University of Tokyo Institute of Gerontology explored the issues. Sawako Shirahase, a sociologist at the Graduate School of Humanities and Sociology, illustrated the consequences of Japan’s rapid demographic change for families.

The AGS AM 2010 included eight afternoon workshops focusing on sustainability themes:

Two workshops addressed the key role of universities to educate students to address sustainability challenges and to generate innovation for positive social change. The first illustrated forward-thinking models of transformative learning, and the second highlighted effective approaches to teaching, creating, and disseminating design and technological innovation for sustainable development at the AGS universities and in industry.

Energy pathways to the low carbon society was the theme of two workshops, including a discussion of the smart grid – technologies for more sophisticated management of supply-and-demand dynamics in the electricity grid – and the huge potential to improve energy efficiency and integrate renewable energy sources.

In the workshop of “Pathways to sustainable urban futures”, researchers from different regions of the world discussed the challenges and opportunities of urban growth. The session of environmental problems in South Asian cities focused on some case studies of environmental issues in the urban areas in the region.

The food and water workshop discussed emerging subjects on food production and distribution, water resources and environment, climate change impacts on water and food, and development-environment conflicts.

The workshop on sustainability under rapid demographic change expanded the discussion on how to relate the technological strengths of the AGS universities, and advances in research for sustainable urban futures, with gerontological and social research, to generate new insights and solutions for an ageing – but more sustainable – society.

More information:

• Conference sessions on demographic change
• Post COP15 panel discussion
• Program and presentations
• AGS AM2010 poster prizes
• Hiroshi Komiyama’s book “Vision 2050″

The AGS was asked to assist via professor level in reviews of drafts and research of various themes by students. The bulk of the work involved producing half page summaries on topics such as smart grids, prospects for CCS, carbon prices, eco cities and food and water challenges. From Chalmers, this was done by Profs Morrison, Malbert, Johnsson and Wirsenius, and by PhD student Eoin Ó Broin. ETH, MIT and University of Tokyo faculty and experts also contributed, including significant inputs from Steve Connors, AGS Energy Pathways coordinator, and the project work of an MIT S-Lab student group.

The report recognises that the big global sustainability challenges of limits to biocapacity, including energy, water, biodiversity, ecosystem services, will be the key drivers of business models. Businesses that adopt robust actions, policies and investments to move rapidly onto a sustainable pathway will have opportunities. The importance of a complimentary role for government in assuring progress towards a “true cost for everything” is also stressed.

by Eoin Ó Broin, PhD student at Energy Conversion, Chalmers.

Download the report from WBCSD webpage: Vision 2050 report

Link to ClimateSciNet: www.climatescinet.com